2009 forecast: Russian economy down 7,5 percent

That is far worse than expected by both Russian and international experts. In January, the EBRD estimated this year’s negative growth to only one percent. The new estimates come after official figures show that the Russian economy contracted as much 9,5 percent in first quarter of the year.

The EBRD forecast reads that “Russia has suffered large output declines in the final months of 2008 and the beginning of this year. Based on government estimates suggesting an extraordinarily severe year-on-year GDP reduction in the first quarter, the EBRD is now projecting an annual contraction of 7.5 per cent in 2009, as a large decline in the first half of the year is in part offset by a rebound in the second half, driven by the government’s fiscal stimulus package. This forecast is exceptionally uncertain, and may be revised once final Q1 GDP numbers are published.”

Also the EU this week reevaluated its 2009 forecasts for the Russian economy from one percent growth to negative growth of 3,8 percent, Newsru.com reports