Diverging Russian gas estimates
A study conducted by the Russian Institute on the problems of Natural Monopolies (IPEM) concludes that official Russian estimates on gas extraction and exports might be too optimistic. The study also shows major gaps in the estimates of the various federal ministries.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade believes Russian gas extraction will reach 820 billion cubic meters per year in 2015 and then up to 900 billion cubic meters by year 2020. Also figures from the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERIRAS) indicate such figures On the other hand, figures from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Industry are mode modest. The two ministries have together elaborated the Russian Energy Strategy for the period until 2030, where the extraction estimates are up to 815 billion cubic meters per year. Between the high figures of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and the ones from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Industry are the estimates of Gazprom. In a recent board meeting, the Gazprom leadership stated that estimated extraction in year 2020 will be up to 670 billion cubic meters The increased Russian gas production might still not be sufficiently big to meet domestic demands. A major part of the increased Russian gas extraction will take place in Eastern Siberia and the Far East. Most of this gas will be exported and hardly benefit the consumers in the main populated areas of the country.
